ClearBridge Recession Risk Dashboard
ClearBridge Investments' Anatomy of a Recession dashboard tracks 12 indicators across consumers, business and financial markets, and combines them into one overall signal. This page shows the latest published reading and how each indicator has moved.
ClearBridge's Recession Risk Dashboard gives an overall expansion signal as of 30 September 2026. 11 of its 12 indicators are green. Job Sentiment is red, as it was in March and June. Housing Permits and Profit Margins, amber in March, have been green since June.
How the signals have moved
Each column is a published reading, newest first.
| Indicator | Sept 26 | Jun 26 | Mar 26 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Housing Permits | Expansion | Expansion | Caution |
| Job Sentiment | Recession | Recession | Recession |
| Jobless Claims | Expansion | Expansion | Expansion |
| Retail Sales | Expansion | Expansion | Expansion |
| Wage Growth | Expansion | Expansion | Expansion |
| Commodities | Expansion | Expansion | Expansion |
| ISM New Orders | Expansion | Expansion | Expansion |
| Profit Margins | Expansion | Expansion | Caution |
| Truck Shipments | Expansion | Expansion | Expansion |
| Credit Spreads | Expansion | Expansion | Expansion |
| Money Supply | Expansion | Expansion | Expansion |
| Yield Curve | Expansion | Expansion | Expansion |
| Overall signal | Expansion | Expansion | Expansion |
Consumer
Household spending, employment, and housing activity
Business Activity
Manufacturing, shipping, and corporate profitability
Financial
Credit conditions, money supply, and bond markets
About this framework
ClearBridge Investments, part of Franklin Templeton, created the Recession Risk Dashboard in January 2016. Jeff Schulze, Head of Economic and Market Strategy at ClearBridge, presents it in the monthly Anatomy of a Recession programme.
Each of the 12 indicators signals expansion, caution or recession, and the 12 are combined into an overall green, yellow or red signal for the US economy. The colours are ClearBridge's own interpretation of the data. This page reproduces the published signals only, and does not feed into the Recession Dashboard score.
Source: ClearBridge Investments, Anatomy of a Recession. Reading last checked 25 October 2026.