Leading Economic Indicator
The Conference Board's Leading Economic Index (LEI) aggregates ten economic indicators to assess economic health. The Conference Board says it leads turning points in the economy by around 7 months. The lead varies a lot from cycle to cycle.
Current Assessment
Six-month rate +0.6%
The LEI was unchanged at 99.6 in September 2026 and rose 0.6% between March and September. The Conference Board says there is no recession signal.
Last updated 25 October 2026. Conference Board Leading Economic Index. Latest published reading: September 2026.
The 3Ds Framework
Depth and duration are read from the index's growth rate over 6 months. Diffusion is the share of the 10 components that are rising, on a scale of 0 to 100.
The Conference Board signals a recession when 2 things happen together. The diffusion index over 6 months is at or below 50. The index's growth over 6 months, at an annual rate, is below a set threshold. In the latest release that threshold was minus 4.3%. It is updated from time to time.
The Ten Components
- Average weekly hours in manufacturing
- Average weekly initial claims for unemployment insurance
- Manufacturers' new orders for consumer goods and materials
- ISM Index of New Orders
- Manufacturers' new orders for non-defence capital goods (ex aircraft)
- Building permits for new private housing units
- S&P 500 stock prices
- Leading Credit Index
- Interest rate spread (10-year Treasury minus federal funds rate)
- Average consumer expectations for business conditions
Background
The Conference Board was established in 1916.
Data Source
This indicator is updated manually from The Conference Board's monthly releases.
Credit
The Conference Board, a non-profit business membership and research organisation.