GDP-Based Recession Indicator Index
Developed by Marcelle Chauvet and James Hamilton. A mechanical index that uses GDP data to judge whether the economy was in recession. James Hamilton calculates it and the St. Louis Fed publishes it on FRED.
Current Reading
3.5%
Latest reading, Q2 2026
GDP based recession indicator at 7.0% for Q1 2026, the latest available. Far below the 67% recession threshold.
Recession signal: above 67%.
Historical Data
How It Works
Rather than relying on subjective interpretations like the NBER approach, this index uses a mathematical model based purely on GDP trends. Each quarter's reading is calculated from GDP data released a quarter later. Once calculated, it is never revised.
Key Thresholds
- Above 67%: the economy is judged to have been in recession in that quarter.
- Below 33% after a signal: the recession is judged to be over.
Key Distinction
NBER has taken between 4 and 21 months to announce a turning point. This index gives a reading within about a quarter of the first GDP estimate.
Data Source
FRED series: JHGDPBRINDX. Updated quarterly.
Credit
Developed by economists Marcelle Chauvet and James Hamilton.