Recession Score
70
▼ 7 from 77 last month
Recession
9 of 13 pre-recession indicators have triggered, 1 is ambiguous, 3 have not. Plus 2 recession-phase signals have fired early (yield curve uninvert, Fed easing). Two previously ambiguous signals flipped back this month as equities and corporate profits made fresh record highs. The offsetting bear signal is CPI year on year reaccelerating to 3.29%.
Last updated 20 April 2026
Monthly Change · March to April 2026
Score dropped 7 points. Tracking away from recession.
Signals that eased
- ▼ S&P 500 made a fresh record high at 7,126 on 17 April, above the February top of 6,976. The correction thesis is invalidated.
- ▼ Corporate profits reached a new record of $4,538.6B in Q4 2025, up from $4,284.9B. No earnings peak.
- ▼ Housing permits rebounded from the August 2025 low of 1,330K to 1,386K. Trough may already be in.
- ▼ Unemployment eased to 4.3%, off the November 2025 peak of 4.5%.
- ▼ Sahm Rule fell to 0.20%, still well clear of the 0.50% trigger.
Signals worth watching
- ▲ CPI year on year reaccelerating from 2.44% to 3.29%. Inflation is coming back.
- ▲ Smoothed recession probability rose from 0.27% to 0.48%. Still far below any danger threshold, but direction reversed.
- ▲ Industrial production slipped from 102.3 in February to 101.8 in March. Momentum lost.
Bottom line. Fewer pre-recession boxes ticked than a month ago. The two ambiguous signals that were nearest to triggering (market top, earnings peak) have been invalidated by fresh record highs. Inflation reappearing is a new concern worth watching, but it is not itself a pre-recession trigger in the TXMC sequence.
Recession Theories
TXMC Sequence
Pre-Recession12 of 31 sequence steps complete
12 of 31 sequence steps complete. Market and profit signals that were wobbling in March have resumed their uptrend, easing the bias towards recession, but CPI reaccelerating is a fresh concern.
H.O.P.E Cycle
3 of 4 decliningH
O
P
E
Mixed. Housing stabilising, orders still contracting, profits at record highs, employment easing off the recent peak.
ClearBridge Anatomy
9 of 12 red9 of 12 indicators signalling recession risk. Housing permits and retail sales now rebounding slightly, but ClearBridge methodology not yet reassessed.
Standalone Indicators
What to Look For Next
The next dominoes
These indicators haven't triggered yet. When they do, the sequence progresses closer to recession.
Earnings Peak
Corporate profits at a new record of $4,538.6B in Q4 2025, up from $4,284.9B in Q3. No earnings peak.
Market High
S&P 500 at 7,126 on 17 April 2026, a fresh record high. The February wobble was a correction, not the top.
Industrial Production Peak
Industrial production at 101.8 in March 2026, down from 102.3 in February. Lost momentum but no confirmed peak.
Key Metrics to Watch
Yield Curve Revert
Uninverted September 2024. Currently +0.55%.
Tightening Ends
Fed began cutting September 2024. Rate stable at 3.64%.
Stock Market Top
S&P 500 at 7,126, a fresh record high. No cyclical top.
CPI Reaccelerating
CPI year on year at 3.29%, up from 2.44% a month ago.
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