Where are we in relation to a recession?
Recession Score
66
Recession
▼ 4 from 70 last month
9 of 13 pre-recession indicators have triggered, 4 have not. The one previously ambiguous signal, real retail sales, has been invalidated by a fresh record high. Plus 2 recession-phase signals have fired early (yield curve uninvert, Fed easing). The real economy strengthened further this period, with retail sales, corporate profits and the S&P 500 all at record highs and the Sahm Rule down to 0.10%. The one building concern is CPI year on year reaccelerating to 3.78%.
Last updated 9 June 2026
Monthly Change · April to June 2026
Score dropped 4 points. Still tracking away from recession.
Signals that eased
- ▼ Real retail sales hit a record $227,758M in April, above the August 2025 peak of $226,329M. The last ambiguous pre-recession trigger is invalidated.
- ▼ Corporate profits rose again to a record $4,719.7B in Q1 2026, up from $4,538.6B. No earnings peak.
- ▼ S&P 500 pushed on to fresh records, trading around 7,400 in early June after a 7,584 intraday high.
- ▼ Industrial production rebounded to 102.5 in April, back above the February level. The March dip was noise.
- ▼ Housing permits climbed to 1,423K in April, confirming the rebound off the August 2025 low of 1,330K.
- ▼ Sahm Rule fell further to 0.10%, miles below the 0.50% trigger.
Signals worth watching
- ▲ CPI year on year reaccelerated again to 3.78% in April, up from 3.29%. Inflation is the clear outlier.
- ▲ Real personal income (ex transfers) has fallen four months running to $16,525.8B, down from a January peak of $16,670.5B.
- ▲ The 10 year minus 2 year spread flattened from +0.55% to +0.41%. Still positive, but worth watching.
Bottom line. The pre-recession scorecard is no fuller than two months ago, and the real economy is, if anything, accelerating. Record retail sales, profits and equities sit alongside a falling Sahm Rule. The only genuine warning sign is inflation reaccelerating, which is not itself a pre-recession trigger in the TXMC sequence but does narrow the Fed's room to keep easing.
Recession Theories
TXMC Sequence
Pre-Recession11 of 31 sequence steps complete
11 of 31 sequence steps complete, none currently ambiguous. Real retail sales made a fresh high, removing the last wobbling pre-recession signal. The bias away from recession has firmed, though CPI reaccelerating remains a concern.
H.O.P.E Cycle
3 of 4 decliningH
O
P
E
Mixed but improving. Housing rebounding, profits and sales at record highs, orders the lone soft spot.
ClearBridge Anatomy
12 of 12 greenClearBridge's Recession Risk Dashboard reads a full expansionary green as of the June 2026 update, with all 12 indicators signalling green. Profit Margins and Job Sentiment were the most recent to turn, Job Sentiment on a record jump in 'jobs plentiful' responses.
Standalone Indicators
What to Look For Next
The next dominoes
These indicators haven't triggered yet. When they do, the sequence progresses closer to recession.
Earnings Peak
Corporate profits at a new record of $4,719.7B in Q1 2026, up from $4,538.6B in Q4 2025. No earnings peak.
Market High
S&P 500 around 7,406 in early June 2026, fresh record highs after a 7,584 intraday peak. No cyclical top.
Industrial Production Peak
Industrial production rebounded to 102.5 in April 2026, back above February. No confirmed peak.
Key Metrics to Watch
Yield Curve Revert
Uninverted September 2024. Currently +0.41%.
Tightening Ends
Fed began cutting September 2024. Rate at 3.63%, easing all but paused.
Stock Market Top
S&P 500 around 7,406, fresh record highs. No cyclical top.
CPI Reaccelerating
CPI year on year at 3.78%, up from 3.29% and 2.44% before that.
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