NBER
The National Bureau of Economic Research's Business Cycle Dating Committee keeps the standard record of when US recessions start and end.
Current Status
No Recession
No recession declared by NBER. The September observation shows expansion.
What NBER Monitors
NBER scrutinise a variety of monthly data, including:
- Real personal income less transfers
- Non farm payroll employment
- Real consumer spending (PCE)
- Manufacturing and trade sales adjusted for prices
- Household survey employment
- Industrial production
NBER also looks at real GDP and real GDI each quarter. It has no fixed rule for how these are weighted. An increase in these metrics shows robustness and growth. The opposite is true for decline.
The Sequence
NBER does not follow a fixed order.
Important Caveat
NBER announces a turning point only once it is sure. Past announcements have come between 4 and 21 months after the date. This is a lagging methodology. It confirms what has already happened rather than predicting what will happen. That's why we track leading indicators alongside NBER.
Data Source
FRED series: USREC (1 = recession, 0 = expansion). Updated monthly, but always retrospectively.
Credit
The National Bureau of Economic Research is a research organisation. Its Business Cycle Dating Committee dates US business cycles.