Job Sentiment

Job sentiment represents workers’ confidence in the labour market, measured through the Job Quits rate tracked by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics.

This metric quantifies how many employees voluntarily leave their positions and serves as an economic health indicator.

What It Signals

An elevated quits rate typically indicates positive worker sentiment. People feel secure enough to seek better opportunities elsewhere. Conversely, a declining quits rate suggests labour market anxiety, as workers cling to current employment.

Recession Indicator

The quits rate falls when workers feel less sure of finding a new job. It fell from 2.0% in December 2007 to 1.2% in August 2009, and from 2.3% in February 2020 to 1.5% in April 2020.

During economic downturns, job security becomes paramount, and voluntary separations decline accordingly.

Tracking the Metric

This allows independent monitoring of the indicator for recession signals.