Manufacturers’ New Orders for Non-Defence Capital Goods
Overview
Manufacturers’ new orders for non-defence capital goods excluding aircraft are a leading economic indicator that measures the volume of new purchase orders received by manufacturers for capital goods.
Capital goods are machines and equipment that businesses buy to make other things. This series leaves out defence orders and aircraft.
Economic Significance
New orders for capital goods matter because they:
- Represent business investment in equipment and infrastructure
- Serve as a proxy for future manufacturing activity, as increased orders typically lead to higher production, increased labour demand, and expanded business spending
- Reflect long-term business confidence in economic outlooks, which is essential for sustainable growth
Recession Signal
There is no fixed threshold for recession identification using this metric. Instead, trend analysis is critical.
A declining trend may suggest businesses are reducing investment due to pessimistic demand forecasts, potentially signalling an approaching recession.
This indicator filters out defence and aircraft orders, which can be driven by government spending and political decisions rather than market conditions, thereby reducing misleading noise.