Recession Score
77
Recession
10 of 13 pre-recession indicators have triggered, plus 2 recession-phase signals have fired early. This measures how far through the typical pre-recession pattern the economy has progressed, not a probability of recession.
Last updated 22 March 2026
Recession Theories
TXMC Sequence
Pre-Recession13 of 31 sequence steps complete
13 of 31 sequence steps complete. Leading indicators have a strong bias towards recession, but we have not entered one yet.
H.O.P.E Cycle
3 of 4 decliningH
O
P
E
3 of 4 sectors showing weakness. Nearly all pointing to recession.
ClearBridge Anatomy
9 of 12 red9 of 12 indicators signalling recession risk.
Standalone Indicators
What to Look For Next
The next dominoes
These indicators haven't triggered yet. When they do, the sequence progresses closer to recession.
Earnings Peak
Corporate profits peaked Q4 2024 at $4,389B. Q3 2025 at $4,285B. Below peak but recovering from Q1 dip. Ambiguous.
Market High
S&P 500 peaked 6,946 on 25 Feb 2026. Now 6,506, down 6.3%. Could be the top, or a correction.
Industrial Production Peak
Industrial production at a new 12-month high of 102.6 in February 2026. Still climbing.
Key Metrics to Watch
Yield Curve Revert
Uninverted September 2024. Currently +0.51%.
Tightening Ends
Fed began cutting September 2024. Rate stable at 3.64%.
Stock Market Top
S&P 500 peaked 6,946 on 25 Feb. Now 6,506, down 6.3%.
Real Sales Peak
Real retail sales peaked $226,329M in Aug 2025. Now $224,606M and falling.
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