This is a comprehensive measure of job creation and loss, excluding the agricultural sector.

It’s tracked to understand the health of the job market.

A rise in non-farm payrolls generally correlates with economic growth and increased consumer spending. 

On the flip side, a decline usually means that businesses are laying off workers or freezing hiring. 

A shrinking payroll leads to decreased consumer spending, which in turn deepens a recession. This usually follows other early signals of economic downturn but precedes the full impact on households. 

Recession Signal

There is no magic number that might signal a recession, using this indicator.

The NBER assess this metric by looking at:

1. Depth refers to the intensity of the economic downturn.
2. Diffusion indicates how widespread the downturn is across different economic sectors.
3. Duration measures how long the downturn persists.

Where a persistent and widespread drop could suggest a recession is underway or imminent.

Track this yourself

You can easily track Non Farm Payrolls on TradingView: https://www.tradingview.com/chart/v7ZG3yMA/?symbol=FRED%3APAYEMS