Here you’ll be able to navigate to more detailed overviews of each of the key indicators (or sometimes methods, sometimes sequences) that make up our panel of economic mastery.
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TXMC
Also known as Alpha Beta Soup. “Student of markets, history and BTC” TXMC is an unnamed (undoxed) commentator on macro and crypto. Whilst not a verified expert economist – in…
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The Leading Economic Indicator – the conference board
The Leading Economic Index (LEI) is a predictive tool designed to signal the ebbs and flows of the economy, providing early indicators of a potential recession. Managed by The Conference…
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Smoothed U.S Recession Probabilities Indicator
The Smoothed U.S. Recession Probabilities (SURP) is a noteworthy indicator that quantifies the likelihood of the United States being in a recession during a given month. By analysing key economic…
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Sahm Rule Recession Indicator
The Sahm Rule Recession Indicator is a straightforward yet potent tool that tracks the national unemployment rate to signal potential recessions. Created by economist Claudia Sahm, this real-time indicator is…
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NBER
When it comes to dating US recessions, the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) wears the crown. Not only are they the official in economic research, but their ‘Business Cycle…
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H.O.P.E cycle
Kantrowitz is also known for creating the H.O.P.E. framework, which stands for Housing, Orders, Profits, and Employment. This framework delineates the sequence in which economic activity typically weakens before a…
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GDP-Based Recession Indicator Index
The GDP-Based Recession Indicator Index is a brainchild of analysts Marcelle Chauvet and James Hamilton. Hosted and documented on the Federal Reserve Economic Data (FRED) platform maintained by the Federal…
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“Anatomy of a recession” by Clearbridge Investments
The Anatomy of a Recession by ClearBridge Investments is a precise tool designed to evaluate the risk of a U.S. recession. Utilising a set of 12 economic indicators, it provides…