This metric offers insights into the output of factories, mines, and utilities.

It’s a critical gauge of the health of the industrial sector, which often leads the economy into and out of recessions.

When industrial production is on the upswing, it generally means that demand for goods is strong, inventory levels are manageable, and the economy is likely in an expansionary phase.

Conversely, a downturn in industrial production can indicate weakening demand, rising inventories, and the potential onset of economic contraction.

In the broader context, fluctuations in industrial production can have a ripple effect on employment, corporate earnings, and even international trade balances.

Recession Signal

Ind. Production is the same as PMI, but less conclusive. On average, the drawdown from highs is 6 – 17%.

Track this yourself

https://www.tradingview.com/chart/v7ZG3yMA/?symbol=FRED%3AINDPRO

To make it easy for yourself, download US recession indicator and mark out the a box between 85 and 97, representing a 6 – 17% drawdown box.